I think the time has finally come - time for the Reds to trade Ken Griffey Jr. A lot of trade rumors are floating around right now, and Griffey comes up a lot. However, it seems almost certain Adam Dunn will be shipped out. I say keep Dunn and trade Griffey!Let me preface with this, I love Griffey. I think he is one of the best players of all-time, and maybe the best hitter of his generation. One of the main reasons I say this is that Griffey obviously never used steroids. One can clearly see that by his slender physique and his propensity for injury. He just has a perfect swing that makes the ball fly out! I wonder if Griffey had 'roided up like most other power hitters, how many homers would he have right now? I'd say he would be knocking on the door of Aaron.
A quick statistical analysis shows that Junior averaged 140 games and 36 homers during his 11 seasons in Seattle. Contrast that to his Cincinnati career in which he averaged 100 games and 27 homers over 7 years prior to 2007. Lets just assume Griffey kept pace with his Seattle averages (and didn't INCREASE production like many of the steroid accused did later in their careers) over his 7 years in Cincinnati, by age what should have been the prime of his career. At the start of this season, he would be sitting at 650, just behind Willie Mays. By now, he'd have passed Mays and would be at 668. Bonds has 3 seasons on Junior, so add 3 more seasons to Griffey's stats and he ends up with 758 home runs - our all-time home run king!
So why trade him now? Because he is having the best start to a season since 2000. I love the guy and want him to succeed, but there are a ton of great teams that need a lefty bat right now. We could get some immediate help in the bullpen, and a couple top prospects in return. Although I hope it's not the case, I don't think Griffey will be performing at this level for long - or perhaps again. The past 7 years have shown that every season is just a matter of time before he winds up on an extended DL stint. Adam Dunn, for all his faults is a durable power hitter that is made for GABP. In this post-steroid era, how many hitters can you legitimately pencil in 40 homers at the start of the season? Not more than a handful. He is the power hitter that our team should be relying on for the next decade.
So I say, farewell to Junior. Thanks for the memories, and good luck getting your ring elsewhere. Don't kick us when you're gone either. With a healthy Junior, the Reds would have been in the playoffs in 2000 and 2006. You can't say he never had a shot in Cincy!
3 comments:
I think they need to blow the whole roster up and rebuild around Bailey (awesome), Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, Hamilton, and Encarnacion. The Reds top three hitters (for AVG) this year are 41, 37, and 37 - Conine, Hatteberg, and Griffey. Dunn hits a lot of homers (19 so far this season), but also plays atrocious defense and has already almost struck out 100 times this season.
I agree - Bailey is awesome! He had a no-no through 5 yesterday. He should be 3-0 if our bullpen wasn't so bad they blew a 7 run lead for him his last start!
Trading Griffey makes too much sense, and would be a no-brainer if not for one thing, attendance. Without Griffey no one would go to GABP except when Homer is pitching, which only happens once every 5 days. With his chase to 600 the Reds will never trade him, although it would be a much smarter idea than trading Dunn. I hate that Dunn doesn't live up to his potential, which should be .260, 45, 120 every season, but you can't argue with him going .240, 40, 99 every year. It's painful because you know he can do so much better, but if the Reds trade him they will never be able to replace his production. (You can't have 2 Ryan Freels in left field!) This trade season could very well determine the next few years of Reds baseball, for better or worse.
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