Red vs. Blue

One of the most interesting aspects of the Presidential election to me was the support that Obama seemed to garner across the board. The media touted that rich/poor, black/white, men/women, old/young all supported Obama. As a result, his landslide Electoral College victory supposedly gives him a mandate that he can do whatever he wants in Washington, because he is the clear people's choice. A couple of quick points about that sentiment (which was repeated tirelessly by the networks last night following the victory).

First of all, Obama had a clear victory, but is it the decisive victory that everyone claims? I admit I never understand political stats, but it doesn't seem to me that 52% of the popular vote is a decisive victory. Obama ran a great campaign and he pulled away 2% or 3% of voters in several key demographics that had voted GOP in 2004. He didn't completely change the vote, he chipped away just enough at the groups "in play" to get a victory. One of my favorite graphics of the last few Presidential elections is the Electoral map by county. As you can see, the nation is predominantly Red in 2004, and again in 2008. Some of the blue counties spread a bit in 2008, but not that much. The Dems main source of power is in every urban county. To me, this shows that America's main division is not Red vs. Blue, but urban vs. suburbs/rural. As big cities grow and sprall, more voters go Dem.

20042008

Secondly, I think that the groups that Obama does appeal to are more vocal and and help to influence the vote. What am I talking about? He gets the media (except Fox). That's free advertising and research for any Democratic candidate. He gets the young voters. These are the people who blog, facebook, protest and get noticed by the media. He also gets the unions, which will campaign and be very vocal. They control a block of worker votes who will do vote how they are told. The GOP supports it's candidates a different way. It's a bit less visceral or emotional. It is pragmatic, and has to do more with your pocketbook. Other than the religious right, I think most Republicans acknowledge they are Republican and nothing more. I didn't go to any rallies. I didn't contribute any money. I didn't walk around with a McCain t-shirt trying to gain votes.

I don't think the Republicans are in huge trouble. I do think they need to reorganize the party and tap into the emotions of voters in a way as to energize the vote. They don't have a long way to go. Despite the "big" Obama win and his successful campaign, he won for 2 simple reasons: people don't like George Bush, and the economy hit a major downturn in the last month of the election. Don't forget that McCain was up 10 points in the polls in October before the stock market crash. I propose that any Democrat running on that ticket would have won this election by running even a barely competant campaign. John Kerry, Al Gore, and Michael Dukakis, all former runners-up, would have won in a vote against any GOP candidate in 2008. In my opinion, Obama's most impressive (and important) victory was in the primaries against Clinton. In the end it all really boiled down to Obama's campaign rally: CHANGE.

America is going to get change alright. The funny thing is, nobody, not even Obama really knows what those changes will be.