What Though The Odds

Manti reacts to Colin not watching!!!

Be honest. Did you watch it all? Did you stay positive, or turn it off in disgust?

I have a cop out: Ryan's birthday party was at 3pm in Columbus, and we had to drive home. I watched until the late 3rd quarter, then we had to hit the road. I tuned it in on the Catholic Channel on Sirius. I actually switched the radio twice. Once when Golson threw that awful INT in the endzone. The second time when Cierre fumbled into the endzone. Both times, I steamed for a song or two then quickly tuned back in.

So has Notre Dame avoided a late season catastrophe? So many times in the past, we were on track for a title, only to drop a late game that we should have easily won. There was something different about this game. There is something different about this team. My weekly blog posts haven't jinxed it. It's DESTINY!

Am I worried about USC? Hell yeah! I am also very nervous about BC and Wake Forest, although for different reasons. We need to pound these teams to try and steal some votes. As I posted last week, it's clear we don't control our our destiny. We need help to get a shot at the National Championship. I thought we might get it last weekend. Les Miles is an idiot and gave Alabama chance after chance to come back. Klein goes down with a concussion, but he'll be back without missing a game. Oregon has ZERO defense, but they can score 70, so voters love them. We need 2 of them to fall. Can it happen?

Alabama
They have played their mighty 4 (yes four) road games. Here's what's left, all at home.

• Texas A&M: I like A&M a lot, but too much for a freshman QB on the road. They keep it close early, but it will not be close.
• W Carolina: Seriously?
• Auburn: Chzik's swan song. Auburn might lose by 70.
• SEC Championship (Georgia): If the real Georgia comes to play, this is a potential upset. Since Mark Richt is the coach, you know that won't be the case!

Kansas State
Snyder isn't dumb enough to paint himself into a corner like Kelly. Klein will play next week even if he doesn't remember his own name.

• @ TCU: TCU has a lot of confidence after a big win at WVU. Minor upset potential. I don't see it happening unless Klein is out.
• @ Baylor: Baylor can score. I'm talking Oregon score. I think this is a tough one that will test the KSU D. I see a shootout, with KSU likely pulling away.
• Texas: Major upset potential. Texas is coming around. I really like Texas to spoil things here.

Oregon
The meat of their schedule continues with 4 decent games that could help them jump KSU in the BCS rankings.

• @ Cal: Tedford in trouble. Cal is awful this year. No shot.
• Stanford: Major upset potential. The only team in the Pac-12 with any defense is Stanford. It will be put to the test. The perfect style of play to foil Oregon's high flying attack.
• @ Oregon State: Minor upset potential. Rivalry game on the road. OSU is overrated, but it will be a HUGE matchup for the Beavers.
• Pac-12 Championship (USC): Another potential upset. It's hard to beat a team twice. Just ask LSU last year.

So the way I see it, Alabama will likely not lose. Not because they are sooooo good, but because their schedule is awful (I'm talking to you SEC). So who will they meet in the BCS Championship?

I think Oregon has a very tough time winning out. After this weekend, they have 3 tests, all very different. I think they get a loss at some point.

Similar to my previous post, it then all comes down to Kansas State. We REALLY need them to lose. It would help us get to the Championship, and potentially win a Heisman for Manti Te'o. They have the softest remaining schedule, but I also think they are the weakest of the remaining undefeateds. I think we have to really root for Texas in their final game.

As an interesting aside, I have stated multiple times this year and in years prior that the three worst coaches in college football are Mark Richt, Mack Brown and Lane Kiffin. All three have so much talent on their teams, but routinely waste it. I can't believe I have to rely on each one of them as my BEST SHOT at putting Notre Dame into a National Championship game!!! I'm not holding my breath.

What Will It Take

Plenty of room at the bottom of that sign!

The dream season. A National Championship coupled with a Heisman trophy. Notre Dame has done it 3 times (1943, 1947 and 1949). More recently, Alabama and Auburn have pulled off this awesome combo.

Before this season began, this was not even on the horizon for the 2012 Fighting Irish. Now, after an incredible 8-0 start to the season, both are within the realm of possibility. Should we get our hopes up? Are we just setting ourselves up to be crushed? What will it take for the Irish to achieve these lofty goals?

All of these questions will be answered by the man who successfully analyzed the ND - Oklahoma game and predicted the outcome based upon stats and factual evidence, despite EVERY national media person ignoring these facts and picking the Sooners. If I hear someone use the "eye test" to judge a football team again, I will immediately tune them out.

The Heisman
Manti Te'o is almost a lock for an invite to New York as a Heisman finalist. Most informal polls of Heisman voters have him at #2 right now. However, I have not seen anyone put him #1 yet. You can see that everyone acknowledges his excellence, but nobody is willing to actually give it to a defensive player. That creates a problem. I think 3 things must happen for Manti to win the Heisman.

1) Notre Dame must go undefeated
Even a single loss would eliminate him from contention.

2) Kansas State has to lose
Collin Klein is the Heisman leader on just about every ranking I have seen. For Manti to win, the leaders ahead of him must fall.

3) Attitude change
Even if Klein goes down, I see another offensive player from a top team leapfrogging Manti - unless the Heisman voters make a conscious decision to change their past voting habits. I think this is a big leap. If Manti can create a few Heisman worthy highlights, that may be enough to make this happen. A big PR push by the ND athletic department is in order as well.

BCS Championship
We can't win a title unless we get there. Obviously, we have to win that game. However, getting there may prove more challenging than winning a potential championship game! Right now, I see 2 scenarios by which we get into the BCS Championship game. Both require a few things to happen, and clearly Notre Dame does not control its own destiny.

1) 2 of the other 3 remaining undefeated teams must lose
Clearly, if we are one of only 2 undefeated teams, we get in. I think Alabama, KSU and Oregon will all end the season ranked ahead of us if we all remain undefeated. The reason for this is that the human polls have us at #4. We cannot leapfrog Alabama or KSU with our remaining schedule compared to theirs. Also, Oregon will likely pass us in the BCS rankings after this weekend with their improved strength of schedule coming up.

2) Notre Dame passes KSU in the Coaches and Harris polls
My joy over defeating Oklahoma was tempered last weekend when the polls came out. I really thought we would leapfrog KSU, based on a head to head comparison of our mutual games against the Sooners. Our victory was much more decisive, and came at a time when OU was rolling. Right now, we are a bit behind them, and it is nearly impossible to overtake them in the BCS rankings. The computer polls love them (as they do us). We need to somehow convince the poll voters to leapfrog us. That will be very difficult. Our only chance is that our upcoming victories look better than theirs. We have to score MAJOR style points and crush Pitt, BC and Wake. The offense needs to progress and show that the Oklahoma game was the START of something big, not an aberration. Considering how we handled Navy and Miami (the worst 2 defensive teams we have played) I like our chances there. I also think we have to really root for USC. We know they are good, but we need our finale against them to really matter. KSU doesn't have much left. their finale against Texas should be a cakewalk considering Texas' awful defense.

So let's get down to the big question. Should we get our hopes up? My simple answer:  

IF NOT NOW, WHEN?

We have all been ND fans our whole lives. That means 2 years of joy and X years of disappointment and soul-crushing losses (X is defined as your age - 2). 1987 gave us a Heisman and 1988 gave us a Championship. Is it likely we get crushed again this year? Yes. However, it's time to get on the bandwagon (if you were ever off). Wear your gear. Watch the games (I'm talking to you Colin and Dad). Make plans for a HUGE Thanksgiving weekend party to watch USC. Make some hotel reservations in Miami, just in case!

Someday, Notre Dame will win it all again. I want to ride the train to the title and savor every moment of it. The train has left the station this year. I'm on board. Are you?

Boom Goes Sooner

ND erased the smiles on these faces by snapping a 47-game win streak in 1957.

November 16, 1957. Notre Dame rolls into Norman as a 19 point underdog to Oklahoma. The Sooners were riding an all-time best 47 game win streak, and were supremely confident. After a legendary game, the Irish won 7-0.

Terry Brennan carried off the field after the game.

Oklahoma will surely be using this as motivation going into this weekend's top NCAA game. #5 Notre Dame goes into Norman as an 11 point underdog to the #8 Sooners. I have read numerous articles and listened to many interviews this week. The consensus is nearly unanimous: Notre Dame is not worthy of its ranking, and we will be totally exposed by Oklahoma Saturday.

Although, I agree that we are underdogs, I think the talking heads are being hypnotized by Oklahoma's big scoring outputs against Texas and Kansas. I would like to do a small preview to let us know what to really expect Saturday. Do we have any chance? Three interesting comparisons seem to suggest a possible outcome.

1) I think you first have to look at the overall stats of Notre Dame and Oklahoma.
Notre Dame
Total Offense: 387 yds (#74) || Rushing 193 (#38) || Passing 194 (#98)
Total Defense: 280 (#6) || Scoring 9 (#2)
Oklahoma
Total Offense: 488 yds (#17) || Rushing 199 (#34) || Passing 288 (#26)
Total Defense: 302 (#15) || Scoring 15 (#12)

On the surface, that suggests that Notre Dame has an average offense which is rather balanced. It is supported by an elite defense. Oklahoma seems to have an above average (not elite) offense and defense. The offense seems to rely on the pass.

2) Next, I think you need to look at the strength of the defenses the two teams have faced. While Notre Dame's schedule continues to be poo pooed by the media, the numbers don't lie. Here are the total defense rankings of teams played:
Notre Dame 
BYU - 4th
Michigan State - 5th
Michigan - 10th
Stanford - 34th
Navy - 48th
Purdue - 72nd
Miami - 114th
Oklahoma 
Texas Tech - 7th
Kansas State - 23rd
Kansas - 85th
UTEP - 94th
Texas - 107th
Florida A&M - FCS

If we throw out the worst defense each team has played, ND has faced an average D ranked #28, while Oklahoma has faced an average #63. Do you think these may have effected the stats in item 1) above???

3) Finally, Kansas State offers an excellent comparison of Notre Dame to Oklahoma via common opponent.
KSU vs. Miami: 52-13
ND vs. Miami: 41-3
KSU vs. OU: 24-19

KSU has the #42 ranked offense and the #23 ranked defense. I think the numbers show that KSU has a slightly better offense than us, mainly due to Klein at QB. However, our defense is far superior to KSU. Both of these facts are proven statistically and by how we handled Miami as a common opponent.

So what does all of this mean for Saturday? I'll try to summarize. Oklahoma's offense has an edge on us, but I think the stats show it is a slight edge, perhaps based on a weak set of opponents. I also think our defense is unlike any they have faced. I think it fair to assume that Oklahoma will probably put up somewhere between 17 and 28 points on us. I also think we should be able to expect a similar output. Of course these projections cannot account for intangibles. Turnovers and penalties will most assuredly decide this game.

I think the matchup is FAR closer than the "experts" are predicting. You have to assume Golson will be improved, and you have to assume Kelly will have a few wrinkles in the gameplan to try and manufacture a few big plays. I think the keys to the game are:

1. The success of those wrinkles
2. Being even or + in turnovers
3. Punishing the lines of Oklahoma with physical play on offense and defense

My prediction:

Notre Dame: 27
Oklahoma: 24

Manti For Heisman

"The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity. Winners epitomize great ability combined with diligence, perseverance, and hard work."

- Heisman Trust Mission Statement

There has been a lot of talk about Manti Te'o as a Heisman candidate. At first, I dismissed it as mere hope. When you have a highly ranked team, you always look to its best players as possible Heisman candidates. As recently as this week, I thought that a perfect storm would have to occur for Manti to have a shot: ND undefeated, QBs ahead of him falter, and Manti makes a defining play to win a game.

Today I have officially changed my mind. I am officially campaigning for Manti to win the Heisman. I don't think it's a long-shot anymore. I think it may be a real possibility. I'm going to explain why. Reread that mission statement above. Nowhere does it say the best player, the most stats, the most wins or the best team. It talks about excellence, integrity, diligence, perseverance and hard work.

Manti wears the C on his jersey (the 1st time in decades) and is the team captain in every way. He is the physical, spiritual and emotional leader. We all know he is a once in a generation defensive player. He is a 1st team All-American and a top 10 draft pick. He controls the game from the defensive side of the ball. Not only that, but he continues to improve every season and every week. The legend wrote another chapter last weekend against Stanford. 1st and goal from the 4 in OT. The Irish needed to stop Stanford. Manti lined up on the goal line with his defense, looked up and down the line, and told his teammates, "I love you". Game over.

We also know about his tragic double loss on September 12. When he broke down and couldn't lead, his teammates picked up the slack and were there for him. He responded with dominant performances against Michigan State and Michigan. If this isn't the very essence of integrity and perseverance, I don't know what is.

But it's just a dream, right? I don't think so anymore. I have recently read articles about how Manti is viewed in Hawaii. I am not mincing words when I say this, he is a god. He is the most revered athlete in Hawaii. I think that is spreading as well. He received thousands of letters after his tragedy, showing his national presence. I also would like you to watch the postgame after Stanford. Although they lost a heartbreaker in OT, their players were swearing, and their coach was whining about phantom whistles and such, almost every Stanford player and coach lined up to shake hands, speak with or hug Manti. It's not just Stanford either. He is revered by other players and coaches.

Yeah, but that's Hawaii and a bunch of football guys. It's not enough for the Heisman, right? Well listen to this, and see if you think Manti has enough momentum to carry him to the award:


Jim Rome has literally done tens of thousands of interviews, probably more. After that interview, he wrote on his website, "That may have been the most inspirational conversation I've ever had with an athlete." His radio show blew up with callers admiring Manti, ND fans and ND haters alike. Twitter exploded. I think the more people that listen to this, they will realize that Manti exhibits what the Heisman was created to symbolize.

The more I learn about Manti, the more I see him play, he is quickly becoming my favorite football player ever. He is the perfect representation of not only Notre Dame football, but college football - as it was meant to be. In this day and age when so many things seem wrong with college football, I call on the Heisman Trust and Heisman voters to vote for Manti Te'o. Use the Heisman to promote the good in college football. College football isn't just about stats and wins. It's about guys like Manti, it's about legends.

2002 vs. 2012

Another glorious victory. Undefeated. Riding high. A top 5 ranking. Our defeat of Stanford has us all on an emotional high. However, I refuse to get ahead of where we are right now. That's 6-0.

This is our best start since 2002. A look back at 2002 shows some eery similarities, and I hope some lessons going forward this year.

8-31-02	KICKOFF CLASSIC vs. Maryland @East Rutherford, NJ	WON 22-0
9-7-02	PURDUE	WON 24-17
9-14-02	MICHIGAN	WON 25-23
9-21-02	at Michigan State	WON 21-17
10-5-02	STANFORD	WON 31-7
10-12-02	PITTSBURGH	WON 14-6
10-19-02	at Air Force	WON 21-14
10-26-02	at Florida State	WON 34-24
11-2-02	BOSTON COLLEGE	LOST 7-14
11-9-02	at Navy @Baltimore, MD	WON 30-23
11-23-02	RUTGERS	WON 42-0
11-30-02	at Southern Cal	LOST 13-44
GATOR BOWL @Jacksonville, FL
1-1-03	North Carolina State	LOST 6-28

9-1-12	Navy @Dublin, Ireland	WON 50-10
9-8-12	PURDUE	WON 20-17
9-15-12	at Michigan State	WON 20-3
9-22-12	MICHIGAN	WON 13-6
10-6-12	Miami FL @Chicago, IL	WON 41-3
10-13-12	STANFORD	WON 20-13
10-20-12	BRIGHAM YOUNG
10-27-12	at Oklahoma
11-3-12	PITTSBURGH
11-10-12	at Boston College
11-17-12	WAKE FOREST
11-24-12	at Southern California

Seriously? You can't make this stuff up. Both seasons started out with minimal expectations. A neutral site road game with a big victory opened things up. Close wins against Purdue, MSU and UM were next. A big win against a decent opponent came next. That was followed by a close game against a solid opponent. That put both teams at 6-0.

Think the similarities stop there? Look ahead. An OK opponent (Air Force vs. BYU), a road game against an NCAA powerhouse (FSU vs. Oklahoma) followed by a "guaranteed" victory (BC vs. Pitt). A doormat or two then lead to an end of the season trip to play USC.

So what does this tell us? Well, these are two different teams, for sure. However, the 2012 Irish can certainly heed the lessons of the past. First, we need to treat BYU like they are the #1 team in the country. Don't look ahead to Oklahoma. Second, Oklahoma is beatable. It will take our best game of the year, but if our defense rises to the occasion, and our offense continues to improve, we have a shot. We'll be double digit underdogs, but we have a shot. Most importantly, we cannot let up against the ACC stretch of our schedule!!! No let down no matter what happens in Norman. Finally, USC is weakened. They appear beatable. However, they will be playing for a BCS bowl, a Heisman trophy, and for pride against their traditional archenemy. They could easily spoil every other good thing that has happened this season!

Something tells me Brian Kelly is well aware of the lessons of the past. Time for cautious optimism is over. This is it. We are on a championship run. Like it or not, Notre Dame is in the hunt for a National Title. Might as well enjoy the ride. I have a feeling this season is the turning point for Notre Dame football. Whether we go all the way or come up short, we're back.

Manning/Brady conflict

If you're looking for a laugh, check out this Facebook conversation between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.  It's pretty freaking hilarious. 

Put me in, Coach!

Just read that Brady Quinn finished the game for the Chiefs last Sunday after a Matt Cassell injury. Quinn took them down the field and threw a potentially game-winning TD pass that was nullified on a penalty. KC settled for a FG but couldn't get the ball back before time ran out. Word is Quinn will start next Sunday at Tampa Bay. I always thought Brady Quinn got a raw deal in the NFL. Cleveland (as usual) managed to screw things up (remember Derek Anderson?) and then for some reason they dumped Quinn to make way for Dolt McBoy. How'd that work out, Brownies? I would just like to see Quinn get a fair shot as a starter over a reasonable stretch of games. If he bombs, so be it. But I think he could be good. He gave us a lot to cheer about at ND.

Political Ramifications

No, I'm not going to talk politics to you. Heck, I didn't even watch the debate, and for the 15 seconds it was on in my house, all I wanted to do was puke. I did, however, find great humor in the fact that each candidate for president was wearing either a red tie (Romney), or a blue tie (Obama). Apparently they think they need to stick to their party colors.

My favorite thing about debates is finding out how each candidate spun the facts, worked the statistics, and generally exaggerated, embellished, or outright lied to the folks listening in at home. I saw a good article this morning doing fact checking on the presidential candidates positions. It brings to light a lot of the nuances that each candidate highlights to make his opponent look worse than he actually is, and to make their own ideas/policies sound better than they really are/were. And it is is not partisan, mostly.

The most eye-opening thing to me was the following statement: "It's true that China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, but it only represents about an 8 percent stake. Some two-thirds of the $16 trillion national debt is owed to the federal government, with the largest single stake the Federal Reserve, as well as American investors and the Social Security Trust Fund."

Men in Blazers

I don't know if you guys are into podcasts or not.  I happen to love them.  They are great to listen to while driving or working out.  My new favorite is the following:

http://meninblazers.buzzsprout.com/


These guys are hilarious and have some serious soccer football knowledge.  They are also British, so they got that going for them, which is nice.  I truly fell in love when they mocked Brad Friedel and John Harkes for acquiring English accents after spending only a few years in Europe.

Jinxed!!!

It seems that Notre Dame just can't catch a break. Big win against Michigan, 4-0 for the first time in 10 years, a top 10 ranking. And then this...

Oh well, it was fun while it lasted!

The well known SI cover jinx has been pulled out to derail yet another Notre Dame season. Here is a recent history of Notre Dame on the cover of SI. You can't make this stuff up!!!

8/21/2006

2006 College Preview: Yeah, after a #2 preseason ranking, that season was a bit of a letdown.I have the Sugar Bowl scars to prove it.

9/30/2002

Another "Return to Glory" derailed by SI. We managed to extend the 4-0 start to 8-0 before the season (and Ty Willingham) came crashing down.

9/23/1996

A great 3-0 start, immediately followed by a loss at Ohio State, a miserable game Ian and I had the misfortune of attending.

11/22/1993

10-0, fresh off an upset against #1 FSU. The highlight of  Notre Dame football during my days on campus. We all know what happened next...

11/29/1993

But we won the Bowl Game, so maybe the cover jinx is reversed if you go back to back covers!!! Can someone get SI on the phone for next week before we play Miami?

9/24/1990

The jinx in fact goes further. In 1990 this cover proceeded a loss to Stanford. we actually had a shot at a title until later losing to Penn State, earning another cover.

9/25/1989

The last jinx cover. #1, 11-0, away at Miami. We lose. No repeat championship.

1/9/1989

You have to go all the way back to the 1988 season to break the jinx. We had 2 covers that year, and held on to go 12-0 leading to this GEM!

8/31/1987

Of note, the last time a Notre Dame player won the Heisman...

Just sayin'!!!!!!!!!