The Royal Heffernans

Quite possibly the best family ever

Monday, November 05, 2012

What Though The Odds

Manti reacts to Colin not watching!!!
Be honest. Did you watch it all? Did you stay positive, or turn it off in disgust?

I have a cop out: Ryan's birthday party was at 3pm in Columbus, and we had to drive home. I watched until the late 3rd quarter, then we had to hit the road. I tuned it in on the Catholic Channel on Sirius. I actually switched the radio twice. Once when Golson threw that awful INT in the endzone. The second time when Cierre fumbled into the endzone. Both times, I steamed for a song or two then quickly tuned back in.

So has Notre Dame avoided a late season catastrophe? So many times in the past, we were on track for a title, only to drop a late game that we should have easily won. There was something different about this game. There is something different about this team. My weekly blog posts haven't jinxed it. It's DESTINY!

Am I worried about USC? Hell yeah! I am also very nervous about BC and Wake Forest, although for different reasons. We need to pound these teams to try and steal some votes. As I posted last week, it's clear we don't control our our destiny. We need help to get a shot at the National Championship. I thought we might get it last weekend. Les Miles is an idiot and gave Alabama chance after chance to come back. Klein goes down with a concussion, but he'll be back without missing a game. Oregon has ZERO defense, but they can score 70, so voters love them. We need 2 of them to fall. Can it happen?

They have played their mighty 4 (yes four) road games. Here's what's left, all at home.
  • Texas A&M: I like A&M a lot, but too much for a freshman QB on the road. They keep it close early, but it will not be close.
  • W Carolina: Seriously?
  • Auburn: Chzik's swan song. Auburn might lose by 70.
  • SEC Championship (Georgia): If the real Georgia comes to play, this is a potential upset. Since Mark Richt is the coach, you know that won't be the case!

Kansas State
Snyder isn't dumb enough to paint himself into a corner like Kelly. Klein will play next week even if he doesn't remember his own name.
  • @ TCU: TCU has a lot of confidence after a big win at WVU. Minor upset potential. I don't see it happening unless Klein is out.
  • @ Baylor: Baylor can score. I'm talking Oregon score. I think this is a tough one that will test the KSU D. I see a shootout, with KSU likely pulling away.
  • Texas: Major upset potential. Texas is coming around. I really like Texas to spoil things here.

The meat of their schedule continues with 4 decent games that could help them jump KSU in the BCS rankings.
  • @ Cal: Tedford in trouble. Cal is awful this year. No shot.
  • Stanford: Major upset potential. The only team in the Pac-12 with any defense is Stanford. It will be put to the test. The perfect style of play to foil Oregon's high flying attack.
  • @ Oregon State: Minor upset potential. Rivalry game on the road. OSU is overrated, but it will be a HUGE matchup for the Beavers.
  • Pac-12 Championship (USC): Another potential upset. It's hard to beat a team twice. Just ask LSU last year.
So the way I see it, Alabama will likely not lose. Not because they are sooooo good, but because their schedule is awful (I'm talking to you SEC). So who will they meet in the BCS Championship?

I think Oregon has a very tough time winning out. After this weekend, they have 3 tests, all very different. I think they get a loss at some point.

Similar to my previous post, it then all comes down to Kansas State. We REALLY need them to lose. It would help us get to the Championship, and potentially win a Heisman for Manti Te'o. They have the softest remaining schedule, but I also think they are the weakest of the remaining undefeateds. I think we have to really root for Texas in their final game.

As an interesting aside, I have stated multiple times this year and in years prior that the three worst coaches in college football are Mark Richt, Mack Brown and Lane Kiffin. All three have so much talent on their teams, but routinely waste it. I can't believe I have to rely on each one of them as my BEST SHOT at putting Notre Dame into a National Championship game!!! I'm not holding my breath.


Colin and Liz said...

I watched the first half, ate dinner and never watched another second. The problem is I have seen ND lose far too many games like that one, I just couldn't stomach another devastating loss. On the bright side, tonight I can watch a DVR version of the game without commercial interruptions, and as a bonus I know that ND will win!

We just need 2 of the 3 other undefeated teams (sorry Louisville, I am not including you in this group) to lose and we are in! I think the odds of that are probably decent, I would venture to say around 50-60%. However, our match-up against USC is going to be tough. I am just not sure we can put up 40 points against them (let alone any decent defense), which is what I think it will take to beat USC. Those WR's they have are just unbelievable.

Also, what are the chances Collin (stupid 2 "L" Collin) Klein plays this weekend after suffering a concussion severe enough to wipe out his memory of scoring a TD only moments before the hit? I say 110% Football coaches who let their star players play after suffering concussions are the absolute worst. We sat out our star QB and star TE after suffering minor concussions and no one is patting Brian Kelly on the back. In fact, I bet people will refer to Klein as a "warrior" for playing so shortly after suffering a concussion and conveniently skip over the fact that his coach is putting him in harm's way.

ian said...

I watched the whole game. Never left and never gave up. The games are much easier to stomach if you remain optimistic... and are super duper drunk.

As for title chances, someone in front of ND has to lose. Simple as that. Given the remaining schedules, ND won't leapfrog anyone if everyone wins out, no matter how good they looking doing so. Honestly, what I'm more worried about right now is Georgia beating Alabama and leapfrogging ND with one loss! Of course the one time ND actually is in the BCS title conversation is the one year when 4 teams will remain undefeated.

I think ND could hang with Alabama. I think they could beat Kansas State. I would be terrified to play Oregon.

Kevin said...

Oregon's offense is like terrorism. They only have to be right on one play to score a TD, whereas the defense has to be right on every play to stop them. They run over 100 plays a game, which is why they score so many damn points.

I also see that Barner RB winning the Heisman if he plays well in the next four games. He looks faster than anyone else and his stats are unbelievable.

Teddy said...

I agree. Oregon is a nightmare matchup, but I honestly think they drop one. I have to think they played a perfect offensive game against USC. You have to think USC does better next time.

The big question for me is simple. Can we get in if ONLY ONE of the teams ahead of us loses? I think there may be a chance.

If it's Oregon. No. We don't jump Alabama or KSU. KSU benefits the same as us, and they lead in BCS rankings.

If it's Alabama, no. The other 3 all slot up one. This also negates our ability to leapfrog.

If it's KSU, I say there is a good chance. That benefits us in the human polls alone, since Alabama and Oregon would still be #1 and #2. The gain in ranking from the human polls picks up critical BCS points. Then, it will come down to the computer rankings. we gain a lot if KSU goes down, and we are WELL ahead of Oregon.

I think a KSU loss gets us in.