The future of college football is four 16-team super-conferences.
If anyone denies this at this point, they are delusional. Academics are an afterthought now that the B1G has thrown away it's academic standards for a geographic footprint. Reality check, the Big East is already dead. Moving on, right now the SEC, B1G and ACC have 14. The Pac-12 has 12, and the Big-12 has 10. What do you think is going to happen? I also wonder if they split from the NCAA and set up their own rules, as they do with the BCS and upcoming playoff.
This is going to happen. The big question I have: Can Notre Dame exist alone with 64 super-conference teams?
My gut, my heart and my brain all tell me NO. These conferences would likely break into 2 8-team divisions, playing 7 division games. You would have to play a few teams in the other division, otherwise you may never face them in the regular season. I think 3 would be the minimum. That would include 1 annual rivalry and 2 games that rotate. That leavs only a couple games that would probably be inter-conference tie-ins. Even if ND could schedule a couple of these, how would they get a game every week? Also, why would a 16-team conference take a 17th member in all sports except football. It's getting cutthroat out there, and I think the conferences will force ND to join or cut-bait.
I am 1 million percent certain that the end game in conference realignment is Notre Dame. The B1G and ACC are reluctant to go to 16 now, hoping ND will pick them. So I see the future playing out in 1 of 2 ways.
1) ND commits to fully join the ACC
If we committed to the ACC, the conference is secure, and a 16th member would quickly be added. This would start a chaotic cascade of events. The Pac-12, B1G and SEC would scramble to get to 16. The only way for the Pac-12 to get to 16 is to rob the Big-12. The Big-12 is then toast. It almost happened a year ago, so you can bet it's on the table in Pac-12 meetings as the other guys have been aggressively expanding. There just aren't enough major football programs to support a 5th super-conference.
2) ND sticks on it's own, and is forced to join a conference
This would be a slower, more painful process for us. This is already happening. I think the next domino to fall would be either the Pac-12 or SEC going to 16. Like I said, the Pac-12 has already tried to do this, so the plan is there. There would then be a mad dash to grab the best of the ACC and Big-12, and one of those conferences would be mortally wounded. This could very well be the ACC, which could lose it's football powers to the B1G, SEC or Big-12. That could leave our olympic sports homeless. On the other hand, the Big-12 could crumble, which I think is more likely. Either way, ND will be forced to pick between the B1G and the ACC for all sports.
Here's how I see the super-conferences filling out:
Pac-12: adds Texas, Oklahoma, BYU and either Baylor/Texas Tech
B1G: adds Kansas and Oklahoma State
ACC: adds Notre Dame and UConn
SEC: adds Kansas State State and West Virginia
That's it. Everyone else is left out in the cold. If ND were to hold out, I think the ACC would be in trouble. However, while a lot of Big-12 schools are pretty undesirable, all the ACC schools would be desirable additions to other conferences. I just can't see EVERY ACC school finding a place in the other 4 super-conferences. Why would BC want to join a Big-12 devoid of Texas and Oklahoma?
One way or another, I think the day is soon approaching when we will have to decide to go all-in with the ACC or run to the B1G with our tail between our legs.
5 comments:
That's a disappointing future. It's tantamount to CFB becoming a clone of the NFL, and I am not sure that I like that. If you had 4 16-team super-conferences I suppose it would make creating a playoff system fairly straight-forward. However, the schedule would be SO boring having to play the same 7 teams every year and only being able to sprinkle in other teams every few years or so. I guess I am just spoiled because ND gets to vary its schedule almost yearly. Just think of all the great match-ups ND has had over the years with the likes of Ohio State, Nebraska, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma, and Miami just to name a few.
I don't have any answers but I do have some suggestions. I think games against FCS teams should be banned. These one-sided games are ruining CFB; get rid of them! Also, eliminate conference championship games. With the playoff coming there will be plenty of money to go around, so these games will no longer be needed. That's my two cents.
Really interesting post, Ted! I've been following this conference realignment stuff very closely as well and while I'm maybe not quite as confident as you the 16-team 4 major conference thing is going happen, I have to think its at least fairly likely. Anyway, the only main point I disagree with is from my reading I think the ACC is likely the dead conference walking in terms of emerging as one of the "Big 4". Obviously that changes quickly if ND becomes a full member (and you can speak much more on that possibility), but everything I've seen, they are getting squeezed big time. Just today I saw more evidence of the B1G looking at more poaching...Georgia Tech has been tenatively approved should it go that route. I'd also heard that Virginia was a possibility, but the big prize is UNC. Both the SEC and B1G have been sending behind the scenes overtures and UNC while seeing how the ACC plays out some more, likely wouldn't wait to jump if things get looking worse. All these guys would fit in well with the geographic reach the B1G is going after, but also bring in significant TV eyeballs (save for UVa which overlaps quite a bit with Maryland). They also fit the B1G mold of the large state research schools...and are pretty darn good schools. Not to mention they are in the AAU which seems to be a pre-req. I don't agree with your post that the B1G has forgone academics...the new guys all fit that mold. You could throw it in my face if it happened, but no way the B1G takes on schools like Ok St. or Kansas St. or West Virginia as they are pretty poor schools state research wise. Not AAU either. I think the most likely sceanrio if all the chips started to fall would be:
B1G: add Georgia Tech and UNC.
SEC: add 2 out of NC St., Clemson (though SC would fight vigorously), UNC, and/or Virginia Tech
Big 12: add Florida St (yep, Florida St.), and some combo of Clemson, Miami (Fl.) Virginia Tech, other ACC or Big East remnants.
ND obviously could likely go where the heck they want to go if they get in early enough in the process. I have to think that ND would rather be PAC 10 than B1G to keep the national footprint. Then you'd see the ACC do what the Big East is doing with a come-one/ come all approach to fill the monster cannonball holes left in the wake. UConn, UC,rob the Big East and Sunbelt and Conf. USA or whatever is left. Big 4 is B1G, Big 12, SEC, and Pac-10. Man Texas really saved the Big 12's ass!
Only ONE thing is absolutely certain in all of this: the MAC is slowly waiting in the weeds waiting to strike out on the national picture like Genghis Khan, bitches!!!!
I'm not quite as confident as Ted. In fact, and I've stated this before, I think it's just as likely that things go in the complete opposite direction and more teams start becoming independent. There is SOOOOO much money in college football today that if you have the following, like Notre Dame, Texas, or Alabama, you could easily make just as much on your own and not have to deal with the conference crap. Just look at Georgia - they went from #3 in the country and missing out on the BCS national championship game by 5 yards to going to the Capital One Bowl. They are completely out of the BCS picture because of the money grab that is the SEC championship game. Schools will only put up with foregoing their own identities and accolades for the sake of a conference for so long.
And if it does go Ted's way, I'm done with CFB. That, to me, would suck all the interest and excitement out of the game.
I am 1 million percent certain that the end game in conference realignment is Notre Dame. The B1G and ACC are reluctant to go to 16 now, hoping ND will pick them. So I see the future playing out in 1 of 2 ways.
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