Group C Breakdown

Big day today. BIG day for US soccer. The US takes on Slovenia at 10AM, and I know I'm taking off work to watch the most important game for the US in the World Cup. I think you should too. But let me explain why it's so important for us.

All good World Cup teams, upon reaching the World Cup Finals (WCF), know how important it is to get a good result in the first game. In the last 3 WCF, only 3 of 36 teams losing their first game qualified out of their group. The US pulled off a stunner by tying England, and that was absolutely HUGE! Here's why:

If the US and Slovenia tie today, the US gets to play Algeria in it's last game, and Algeria is not very good. Slovenia, conversely, has to play England, who is pretty good (except for their goalies). In the third game, both the US and England are favored to win. If this happens, the US will have 5 pts (1 win, 2 ties) and Slovenia will have 4 pts (1 win, 1 tie, 1 loss) and the US goes through with England (2 wins, 1 tie). We would then get absolutely destroyed by Germany.

A tie today is nothing to get upset about - but it would mean we'd need to beat Algeria, and score some goals in doing so. If the US, Slovenia, and England tie each other, and all beat Algeria each would end up with 5 pts. Determine 1st and 2nd place in the group would go down to goal differential. Therefore, the US would need to beat Algeria by at least 2 goals (since Slovenia only won 1-0). Having all three teams tie is not an unlikely scenario, because teams in the WCF play "not-to-lose" soccer. That's how Italy won it all back in 2006 in Germany. However, I don't see England tying Slovenia. I think both teams play that game to win.

A loss today wouldn't eliminate the US entirely, but it would come pretty close, and we'd have to count on a LOT of variables to go through, which are pretty unlikely (i.e. England tying Algeria and losing to Slovenia).

It's going to be a good game today, I hope. And I also hope the US wins, since that puts us in the driver seat. Heck if we win today and against Algeria, we can win the group and avoid playing Germany entirely! Yeah, we'll probably play Ghana or Serbia, but we'd have a chance against them! So get out your flags, find your local bar, and go cheer on the Yanks as we play a big match against Slovenia!