Super-Conferences

The recent expansion of the B1G to 14 by poaching Rutgers and Maryland, as well as the quick ACC response to poach Louisville has cemented it:

The future of college football is four 16-team super-conferences.

If anyone denies this at this point, they are delusional. Academics are an afterthought now that the B1G has thrown away it's academic standards for a geographic footprint. Reality check, the Big East is already dead. Moving on, right now the SEC, B1G and ACC have 14. The Pac-12 has 12, and the Big-12 has 10. What do you think is going to happen? I also wonder if they split from the NCAA and set up their own rules, as they do with the BCS and upcoming playoff.

This is going to happen. The big question I have: Can Notre Dame exist alone with 64 super-conference teams?

My gut, my heart and my brain all tell me NO. These conferences would likely break into 2 8-team divisions, playing 7 division games. You would have to play a few teams in the other division, otherwise you may never face them in the regular season. I think 3 would be the minimum. That would include 1 annual rivalry and 2 games that rotate. That leavs only a couple games that would probably be inter-conference tie-ins. Even if ND could schedule a couple of these, how would they get a game every week? Also, why would a 16-team conference take a 17th member in all sports except football. It's getting cutthroat out there, and I think the conferences will force ND to join or cut-bait.

I am 1 million percent certain that the end game in conference realignment is Notre Dame. The B1G and ACC are reluctant to go to 16 now, hoping ND will pick them. So I see the future playing out in 1 of 2 ways.

1) ND commits to fully join the ACC
If we committed to the ACC, the conference is secure, and a 16th member would quickly be added. This would start a chaotic cascade of events. The Pac-12, B1G and SEC would scramble to get to 16. The only way for the Pac-12 to get to 16 is to rob the Big-12. The Big-12 is then toast. It almost happened a year ago, so you can bet it's on the table in Pac-12 meetings as the other guys have been aggressively expanding. There just aren't enough major football programs to support a 5th super-conference.

2) ND sticks on it's own, and is forced to join a conference
This would be a slower, more painful process for us. This is already happening. I think the next domino to fall would be either the Pac-12 or SEC going to 16. Like I said, the Pac-12 has already tried to do this, so the plan is there. There would then be a mad dash to grab the best of the ACC and Big-12, and one of those conferences would be mortally wounded. This could very well be the ACC, which could lose it's football powers to the B1G, SEC or Big-12. That could leave our olympic sports homeless. On the other hand, the Big-12 could crumble, which I think is more likely. Either way, ND will be forced to pick between the B1G and the ACC for all sports.

Here's how I see the super-conferences filling out:

Pac-12: adds Texas, Oklahoma, BYU and either Baylor/Texas Tech
B1G: adds Kansas and Oklahoma State
ACC: adds Notre Dame and UConn
SEC: adds Kansas State State and West Virginia

That's it. Everyone else is left out in the cold. If ND were to hold out, I think the ACC would be in trouble. However, while a lot of Big-12 schools are pretty undesirable, all the ACC schools would be desirable additions to other conferences. I just can't see EVERY ACC school finding a place in the other 4 super-conferences. Why would BC want to join a Big-12 devoid of Texas and Oklahoma?

One way or another, I think the day is soon approaching when we will have to decide to go all-in with the ACC or run to the B1G with our tail between our legs.

SEC

It's begun. In fact, it began as soon as the last second ticked off the clock in Southern California with Notre Dame 12-0 and headed to the BCS National Championship Game...

• "Whoever wins the SEC championship game will destroy Notre Dame."
• "Notre Dame would be a .500 team if it played in the SEC."
• "Notre Dame is the sixth best team in the SEC."
• "Let's see Notre Dame go 12-0 if they have to play Alabama, LSU, and Georgia every year."

First of all, I'm think Notre Dame's chances of beating an SEC team are pretty solid. Notre Dame plays like an SEC team - great defense, ball control offense.

I won't even touch items two and three. Complete speculation.

I will comment on item four. Everyone thinks the SEC is such a rough schedule, but the reality is not even Alabama, Georgia, and LSU had to play Alabama, Georgia, and LSU - and they're all in the SEC! And none of them are 12-0.

Alabama did play LSU in the regular season, but avoided Georgia (until this weekend), Florida, and South Carolina. In what I would consider their only "competitive" SEC games, they went 1-1, with a home lost to Texas A&M.

Georgia played Florida in the regular season, but avoided Alabama (until this weekend), LSU, and Texas A&M. They were routed by South Carolina, 35-7, to go 1-1 in "competitive" SEC games.

LSU had the most difficult path of the three, playing Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Alabama in the regular season. They avoided Georgia. They went 2-2 in "competitive" SEC games.

The SEC isn't stupid. It knows that if it schedules all its big dogs against each other every season the odds of one (or two) coming out unscathed are slim. So it balances the schedules to ensure that the big clashes are offset with plenty of Kentucky's, Ole Miss's, and Tennessee's.

Take a gander at the SEC conference standings when you have a minute. Seven of the 14 teams in the conference finished the season at or below .500. Two teams, Kentucky and Auburn won zero - ZERO! - conference games and another, Tennessee, won only 1. The SEC, like all other conferences, is one of have's and have-not's.

So before you start touting the merits of the SEC (or any other conference) take a step back and really look at both the separation of powers and the results. Oh, and every SEC team - Every. Single. One. - padded their schedule with FCS and/or lower-tier FBS opponents. Not so for Notre Dame.

And don't give me any crap about Notre Dame not playing in a championship game. It's not ND's fault that the SEC wanted a money grab at the possible expense of a representative in a BCS game.

Of course, this is all a moot point if the SEC opponent whips Notre Dame. But I don't see that happening. Go Irish!

BCS National Championship

The original...                                               and my GLORIOUS reproduction!!!

So here we are. Since the season started, I see no less than 16 blog posts talking Notre Dame football. I reread them, and it really offers great insight into the mind of long-suffering Irish fans.

The official kick off to the Notre Dame season was unfortunately the Rick Reilly hack job. The now irrelevant sportswriter refused to budge all year, even up to USC. Now he will be shining up the helmets. I have to say, this is just a ploy for him to try to get more clicks on a mea culpa article he is planning. He's not truly sorry, and no way he really thinks he was wrong. He doesn't deserve to step foot on campus, and he should not be allowed anywhere near our helmets!

From there, you can see the cautious optimism building, until November 1, when I posted it was time to go all on and asked, "If not now, when?" From that point onward, we worried about BCS rankings, respect, style points and Heismans. Everything has continued to fall into place. Even Skip Bayless, whom I consider the worst "journalist" in America, has jumped on board. His headline article, This Is Your Man, on why Manti should win the Heisman today is actually well thought out and presents the best argument to date for Manti.

After we completed a 12-0 regular season and punched our ticket to Miami, it felt surreal. So many years of futility and heartache, finally turned around. At last, for real, a Return to Glory. After so much hope this season, it was just a sense of relief.

So there is only one place left to go, Miami and the BCS National Championship Game! If we can score tickets, (and I am cautiously optimistic that the 16 alumni in our family and their various contacts will come through) Colin, Ian and I will be there representing the Royal Heffernans as Notre Dame seeks to ascend to the throne of college football. You can be assured that the trip and game will be thoroughly documented on this site, and perhaps in real time using Twitter, Facebook or some other interweb device. (Advice for live blogging an event using an iPhone would be much appreciated).

There's plenty of room at the bottom of those signs for a few more years!!!

Numero Uno

   The path to the BCS Championship opens for the Irish!

I cannot believe it. Notre Dame was seemingly on the outside looking in to the BCS Championship. Needing help to get a shot at National Championship #12, the unthinkable happened on Saturday.

#1 Kansas State lost was completely exposed by Baylor, who before this weekend was ranked #120 out of 120 FBS teams in total defense. Yeah, that's a Heisman trophy QB on a national championship team.

#2 Oregon finally played a team whose defense was ranked above 80, and managed only 14 points. Tell me, with all the talk about how amazing Oregon was, why did I never hear even once that their FG kicker had kicked 1, that's ONE, FG all season? Do you think being able to kick a FG would be important in trying to win a national championship? I guess they realize it now!

What does this tell us? It's clear that "THE EYE TEST" is total BS!!! Any method by which you objectively compared Notre Dame to KSU or Oregon showed that ND had a better resume. I'm not saying a better team, but we had played a stronger schedule with a dominating defense and an offense that tried to not get in the way. Missouri State, North Texas, Arkansas State, Fresno State, Tennessee Tech. These are some of the juggernauts that the Wildcats and Ducks padded their stats against.

We still have to get the job done next weekend against USC. Do you need any more motivation than a shot at a National Championship? Sure you do:

"At the end there, when they didn't call those timeouts, they just quit. And that's what Notre Dame football's about. They're not anything like USC."

That's USC senior Chris Gallipo last year. Did Matt Barkley agree?

"It seemed from our sideline and our perspective that they did give up. It seemed uncharacteristic of Notre Dame. I wouldn't have wanted to have been on that sideline."

Oh yeah. I've been waiting a year to get payback for that crap. I hope we crush them 42-0. The Heffernan family will celebrate with the game watch party to end all game watch parties. Then, and only then, we can talk 'Bama. Until then...

The Ultimate Double Standard

As a perfect compliment to Ian's prior post, I wanted to talk about one of those college football phrases that make me want to PUKE, style points, also known as "the eye test".

From previous posts, it's obvious the two big fish Notre Dame and it's fans are chasing this year, a National Championship and a Heisman. We need help to get into the BCS Championship game. We also seem to be on the outside looking in in the Heisman race for Manti Te'o. A look at why will show the hypocrisy that is college football.  

Stats vs. Style Points

Let's look first at the BCS Championship. We currently sit at #3 with no possible hope to overtake Oregon or Kansas State. One of them has to lose. This is an absolute joke. The "eye test"? Who's eyes are we talking about? Is it every media member in America who said ND would get demolished by first Michigan State, then Michigan, then Stanford then especially Oklahoma? How about the college football experts who pick games each week? Corso has a 64% record picking winners. Herbstreet is about the same at 62%. Most other "experts" are around that same area, assuming they pick a wide range of games. Check for yourself. So I guess they are around 63% correct in assuming ND is no one of the top 2 teams? Look, it's clear that "the eye test" is a joke. It is meaningless. Instead, look at the cold hard facts. The stats and records of Notre Dame compared to Oregon and KSU. Brian Kelly summarized it best. Ian's post needs repeating:

"If you want style points, look at our defense, look at the schedule we played, 10 FBS teams."

Scoreboard!

Now let's look at the Heisman and see the absolute hypocrisy. While the announcers go absolutely out of their way to say why the style points supersede the schedule, the stats and quite simply LOGIC to define the BCS race, it's the ABSOLUTE OPPOSITE for the Heisman race. Here, it's all about stats. The best player with the best stats on the best team. So let's look at the candidates. 3 undefeated teams. 3 front runners.

Collin Klein
A QB who handles the ball every offensive play. He scores tons of TDs, passing and rushing. Have you heard his name before this season? A name which he even spells wrong!

Kenjon Barner
A RB on a pinball offense with some gaudy rushing numbers. Was he even a candidate before rushing for 300+ against USC? See I take issue with this because he wasn't a candidate before that. Also, he is just a cog in the wheel. Remove him, and Oregon is the EXACT SAME TEAM.

Manti Te'o
The best player on the team. He leads in tackles, interceptions and heart. He imposes fear into the opposing team, while being universally loved by opponents as well. Without Manti, Notre Dame has 2 or 3 losses this year. That's just a fact. He has literally transformed Notre Dame, and his off-the-field actions are now legendary. There are so many stories, articles and posts to support this, I can't even start to list them here.

So here, "the eye test" is 100% clear. Manti IS college football. However, the media decides instead to use a statistical test to rule him out. It just makes me sick.

I give up. All I want is 12-0. Let the rest of this crap take care of itself. I'll be pissed when we get passed over for the BCS Title and Heisman, but I know something else. Notre Dame will be ranked in the Top 5 next year, and be an even better team. The morons who are holding the BCS and Heisman away from us won't be able to do it for much longer!

Style Points

As of the latest BCS rankings released last night, Notre Dame sits at #3. There are a lot of arguments for and against each remaining unranked team for claiming the top two spots and, thus, places in the BCS national championship game. I don't like getting pulled into that conversation, but Brian Kelly said something in his weekly press conference yesterday that really caught my attention.

A lot of the arguments against Notre Dame have included the phrase "style points." Sure, Notre Dame is 10-0, but they only eked by Purdue and they needed three overtimes to beat Pittsburgh! They just don't have the "style points." Well, here was Kelly's quote when asked about those "style points":

If you want style points, look at our defense, look at the schedule we played, 10 FBS teams.

It's a fantastic quote because it dismisses this bullshit subjective metric while at the same time reminding people of the hypocrisy of dismissing Notre Dame's defense.

Teams from the SEC have won the past six (6) national championships. They have done so with defense. All those low-scoring SEC games between LSU and Alabama are spoken of in reverent tones as defensive masterpieces. "Oregon is a joke!" they say,  "Let's see how effective that blur offense is against a decent SEC defense!" Teams from the SEC have no style points. What they have are crazy good defenses and, sadly and more importantly, they have a reputation. They came into the season with high rankings.

Notre Dame does not have those luxuries. They have 20 years of futility and incredibly low expectations coming into the season because of their impossible schedule (which is now, ironically but not surprisingly, being downplayed). So now all of a sudden Notre Dame is fielding a defense that is every bit as good as those lauded SEC defenses - both statistically and through the "eyeball test." Notre Dame's defense is led by Manti Te'o, who many consider not only the best defensive player in the country, but the best player in the country. Yet now, because it's Notre Dame with that crazy good defense they're being dismissed for the very same reasons that Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and South Carolina are still in the top 10, despite all of those teams having at least 1 loss and two of them (LSU and South Carolina) having 2 losses.

So this is nothing new. The media is changing their song to suit their Notre Dame bias. As I said in a comment to Ted's post the other day, I'm fine with that. I just want to see Notre Dame go undefeated. I'll root like hell along the way for Kansas State and Oregon to get upset, but at the end of the day I'll be content not having to see Notre Dame lose. It's just disappointing that such a blatantly flawed metric is still perpetuated and the upcoming playoff format will do nothing to change this - it will just leave it to a selection cabal and push the frustration a few slots down in the rankings. Go Irish!

You Are Looking LIVE!

Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA

It's clear, Notre Dame does not control it's own destiny. So we as loyal sons and daughters are split as fans. We have to root for the Irish to win, and root for other teams to lose (or in some cases win as well). For the rest of the season, I will present a weekly post on important games that we should keep an eye on. The ultimate goal, a BCS Championship victory!!!

Notre Dame @ BC || 8pm || ABC
Of course us taking care of business is always priority #1. Our 5th (with one more to go) primetime night game of the season. Let's put the nail in Spaz's coffin.

Teams We Need to Lose
This will always always include the 3 teams ahead of us in the BCS standings.

Texas A&M @ Alabama || 3:30pm || CBS minor upset potential
Oregon @ Cal || 10:30pm || ESPN no chance
KSU @ TCU || 7pm || FOX moderate upset potential

Strength of Schedule Games
These are the incidental, meaningless games that we need to watch, hoping they help our SOS and hurt that of the teams ahead of us. Stupid BCS! Of course, we need every team on our schedule to win! That's a given. These are some possible games with BCS implications.

Oregon State @ Stanford || 3pm || FOX need a Stanford win, which also diminishes the OSU/Oregon matchup
Iowa State @ Texas || 12pm || LHN similar to above, a Texas loss diminishes the KSU/Texas matchup
Louisville @ Syracuse || 12pm || ABC gotta root for the Orange; they lost to USC and this would improve our SOS
UCLA @ WSU || 10:30pm || ESPN2 we need USC to get another shot at Oregon in Pac-12 Championship
Northwestern @ Michigan || 12pm || ESPN Blue can still win the B1G, helping our SOS a ton!

Scraps
To nab a few extra votes, we need some 1-loss SEC teams to lose. There are a handful of idiot voters out there who still put Georgia and Florida ahead of us. Root against them! We want Alabama facing a tough 2-loss team in the SEC Championship!

What Though The Odds

Manti reacts to Colin not watching!!!

Be honest. Did you watch it all? Did you stay positive, or turn it off in disgust?

I have a cop out: Ryan's birthday party was at 3pm in Columbus, and we had to drive home. I watched until the late 3rd quarter, then we had to hit the road. I tuned it in on the Catholic Channel on Sirius. I actually switched the radio twice. Once when Golson threw that awful INT in the endzone. The second time when Cierre fumbled into the endzone. Both times, I steamed for a song or two then quickly tuned back in.

So has Notre Dame avoided a late season catastrophe? So many times in the past, we were on track for a title, only to drop a late game that we should have easily won. There was something different about this game. There is something different about this team. My weekly blog posts haven't jinxed it. It's DESTINY!

Am I worried about USC? Hell yeah! I am also very nervous about BC and Wake Forest, although for different reasons. We need to pound these teams to try and steal some votes. As I posted last week, it's clear we don't control our our destiny. We need help to get a shot at the National Championship. I thought we might get it last weekend. Les Miles is an idiot and gave Alabama chance after chance to come back. Klein goes down with a concussion, but he'll be back without missing a game. Oregon has ZERO defense, but they can score 70, so voters love them. We need 2 of them to fall. Can it happen?

Alabama
They have played their mighty 4 (yes four) road games. Here's what's left, all at home.

• Texas A&M: I like A&M a lot, but too much for a freshman QB on the road. They keep it close early, but it will not be close.
• W Carolina: Seriously?
• Auburn: Chzik's swan song. Auburn might lose by 70.
• SEC Championship (Georgia): If the real Georgia comes to play, this is a potential upset. Since Mark Richt is the coach, you know that won't be the case!

Kansas State
Snyder isn't dumb enough to paint himself into a corner like Kelly. Klein will play next week even if he doesn't remember his own name.

• @ TCU: TCU has a lot of confidence after a big win at WVU. Minor upset potential. I don't see it happening unless Klein is out.
• @ Baylor: Baylor can score. I'm talking Oregon score. I think this is a tough one that will test the KSU D. I see a shootout, with KSU likely pulling away.
• Texas: Major upset potential. Texas is coming around. I really like Texas to spoil things here.

Oregon
The meat of their schedule continues with 4 decent games that could help them jump KSU in the BCS rankings.

• @ Cal: Tedford in trouble. Cal is awful this year. No shot.
• Stanford: Major upset potential. The only team in the Pac-12 with any defense is Stanford. It will be put to the test. The perfect style of play to foil Oregon's high flying attack.
• @ Oregon State: Minor upset potential. Rivalry game on the road. OSU is overrated, but it will be a HUGE matchup for the Beavers.
• Pac-12 Championship (USC): Another potential upset. It's hard to beat a team twice. Just ask LSU last year.

So the way I see it, Alabama will likely not lose. Not because they are sooooo good, but because their schedule is awful (I'm talking to you SEC). So who will they meet in the BCS Championship?

I think Oregon has a very tough time winning out. After this weekend, they have 3 tests, all very different. I think they get a loss at some point.

Similar to my previous post, it then all comes down to Kansas State. We REALLY need them to lose. It would help us get to the Championship, and potentially win a Heisman for Manti Te'o. They have the softest remaining schedule, but I also think they are the weakest of the remaining undefeateds. I think we have to really root for Texas in their final game.

As an interesting aside, I have stated multiple times this year and in years prior that the three worst coaches in college football are Mark Richt, Mack Brown and Lane Kiffin. All three have so much talent on their teams, but routinely waste it. I can't believe I have to rely on each one of them as my BEST SHOT at putting Notre Dame into a National Championship game!!! I'm not holding my breath.

What Will It Take

Plenty of room at the bottom of that sign!

The dream season. A National Championship coupled with a Heisman trophy. Notre Dame has done it 3 times (1943, 1947 and 1949). More recently, Alabama and Auburn have pulled off this awesome combo.

Before this season began, this was not even on the horizon for the 2012 Fighting Irish. Now, after an incredible 8-0 start to the season, both are within the realm of possibility. Should we get our hopes up? Are we just setting ourselves up to be crushed? What will it take for the Irish to achieve these lofty goals?

All of these questions will be answered by the man who successfully analyzed the ND - Oklahoma game and predicted the outcome based upon stats and factual evidence, despite EVERY national media person ignoring these facts and picking the Sooners. If I hear someone use the "eye test" to judge a football team again, I will immediately tune them out.

The Heisman
Manti Te'o is almost a lock for an invite to New York as a Heisman finalist. Most informal polls of Heisman voters have him at #2 right now. However, I have not seen anyone put him #1 yet. You can see that everyone acknowledges his excellence, but nobody is willing to actually give it to a defensive player. That creates a problem. I think 3 things must happen for Manti to win the Heisman.

1) Notre Dame must go undefeated
Even a single loss would eliminate him from contention.

2) Kansas State has to lose
Collin Klein is the Heisman leader on just about every ranking I have seen. For Manti to win, the leaders ahead of him must fall.

3) Attitude change
Even if Klein goes down, I see another offensive player from a top team leapfrogging Manti - unless the Heisman voters make a conscious decision to change their past voting habits. I think this is a big leap. If Manti can create a few Heisman worthy highlights, that may be enough to make this happen. A big PR push by the ND athletic department is in order as well.

BCS Championship
We can't win a title unless we get there. Obviously, we have to win that game. However, getting there may prove more challenging than winning a potential championship game! Right now, I see 2 scenarios by which we get into the BCS Championship game. Both require a few things to happen, and clearly Notre Dame does not control its own destiny.

1) 2 of the other 3 remaining undefeated teams must lose
Clearly, if we are one of only 2 undefeated teams, we get in. I think Alabama, KSU and Oregon will all end the season ranked ahead of us if we all remain undefeated. The reason for this is that the human polls have us at #4. We cannot leapfrog Alabama or KSU with our remaining schedule compared to theirs. Also, Oregon will likely pass us in the BCS rankings after this weekend with their improved strength of schedule coming up.

2) Notre Dame passes KSU in the Coaches and Harris polls
My joy over defeating Oklahoma was tempered last weekend when the polls came out. I really thought we would leapfrog KSU, based on a head to head comparison of our mutual games against the Sooners. Our victory was much more decisive, and came at a time when OU was rolling. Right now, we are a bit behind them, and it is nearly impossible to overtake them in the BCS rankings. The computer polls love them (as they do us). We need to somehow convince the poll voters to leapfrog us. That will be very difficult. Our only chance is that our upcoming victories look better than theirs. We have to score MAJOR style points and crush Pitt, BC and Wake. The offense needs to progress and show that the Oklahoma game was the START of something big, not an aberration. Considering how we handled Navy and Miami (the worst 2 defensive teams we have played) I like our chances there. I also think we have to really root for USC. We know they are good, but we need our finale against them to really matter. KSU doesn't have much left. their finale against Texas should be a cakewalk considering Texas' awful defense.

So let's get down to the big question. Should we get our hopes up? My simple answer:  

IF NOT NOW, WHEN?

We have all been ND fans our whole lives. That means 2 years of joy and X years of disappointment and soul-crushing losses (X is defined as your age - 2). 1987 gave us a Heisman and 1988 gave us a Championship. Is it likely we get crushed again this year? Yes. However, it's time to get on the bandwagon (if you were ever off). Wear your gear. Watch the games (I'm talking to you Colin and Dad). Make plans for a HUGE Thanksgiving weekend party to watch USC. Make some hotel reservations in Miami, just in case!

Someday, Notre Dame will win it all again. I want to ride the train to the title and savor every moment of it. The train has left the station this year. I'm on board. Are you?