Since the current ownership group took over, the Reds and GM Walt Jockety have been stockpiling talent in the minors. By leveraging that talent now, not only could we make a run at the playoffs and be a legit postseason contender, but we could be set up for the next 3 years. For so many reasons, I think Jockety has got to be ultra aggressive in the next 2 weeks.
First, look at the facts:
- We are the defending division champs, and are struggling this season to find a spark, despite having the same team.
- The Reds are currently 4.5 games out of first, and 9 games back in the Wild Card standings.
- Right now, we have more major league quality starting pitchers than we have spots in the rotation.
- We have 4 all-stars on our AAA Louisville team.
- Joey Votto is under team control through 2013, then he will be a free agent. Hasta la vista.
- Major realignment is almost a certainty for next season, and the playoffs are going to be expanded. Bud Selig has all but said this, and everyone is in favor of more teams in the postseason.
I have been closely following the trade rumors, and I think I see a way for the Reds to clean up. Each of these trades is being discussed, but here's what needs to happen.
1) James Shields (TB) for Yonder Alonso / Yasmani Grandal / Mike Leake
This is our biggest need, and this trade has to happen. Shields is a dominating #1 ace pitcher. He has a reasonable contract, and is under team control through 2014. A PERFECT fit for the Reds. Alonso has no place to play for the Reds, Grandal has another stud catcher ahead of him in the minors, and Leake has no place to pitch. Did I mention the Rays are desperate for help at 1B and C???
2) Santiago Casilla (SF) for Ramon Hernandez
Hernandez is expendable, and there is high demand for a hitting catcher. The Giants NEED a catcher. Remember Buster Posey and his home plate collision? Casilla is a pretty good reliever, and we still have Hannigan. This also clears the way for our future catcher, Devin Mesoraco. He is ready.
3) Josh Willingham (OAK) for Billy Hamilton Willingham isn't going to be an all-star outfielder, but he is an upgrade over what we have now in left. He could slot nicely into the cleanup slot (he bats 3rd for the A's) and solve a huge problem for us - we are 15th in the NL for cleanup production. If we get lucky, he becomes a Matt Holliday type acquisition for us. Hamilton is a nice player, but he has Cozart and Phillips ahead of him, and likely will not contribute for years.
4) Prospect (ATL) for Johnny Gomes
There just isn't any room for Gomes. The Braves are desperate for another bat, and Gomes destroys lefties. Get a good AAA prospect, instead of letting Gomes warm the bench.
It really is now or never. Either we go for it and shoot for the 3-year window we have with our core players (Votto), or we just hold tight and hope to sneak into the playoffs with a whimper. These trades need to happen, and we become a much better team. Now and in the future.
4 comments:
i agree, we really need to make a move now, especially the shields deal, if we can get it done.
It doesn't help that the Brewers are out making deals left and right. Did I mention that I have an irrational, deep-seated enmity of the Brewers?
It's amazing that last night was the first time in over a month that the Reds have won consecutive games and they're still only 3 games out. I don't know that a move is needed, I just think they need to start playing better. All the pieces are there...
I don't know about that Ian. It was obvious in the playoffs last year that the Reds were missing a top-notch starting pitcher to start against the Phillies. It's also obvious again this season, with the best ERAs of starting pitchers going to Leake (4.04) and Arroyo (5.56). The Reds don't have the offense to overcome other teams' 5 runs in every game. Also, Cordero is done as the closer. He's blown a number of saves recently, which is a main reason we haven't won consecutive games since June. I'm not as worried about the field players - I even think left field isn't too bad if Heisey, Gomes, and Lewis are used appropriately - but our pitching needs some help if we want to make the playoffs and get out of the first round.
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