College Football is Rigged

On the day of the FIRST EVER College Football Playoff Rankings, I thought it would be fun to jump all over ESPN and the SEC, who may have 3 top 4 teams in the rankings tonight. Let's do an exercise tracking the SEC teams over the first 10 weeks of the season. I'll stick with the AP Poll, since the Coaches Poll is a bunch of self-serving bastards!

So what is the point? It's this: that you can't overcome the SEC because the rankings don't allow it. 8 ranked teams to start the season stacks the deck. Then, they climb in the rankings by destroying powerhouses like Lamar, SMU, Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss, LA Lafayette, Sam Houston, and more. When they finally get around to playing each other, a loss doesn't hurt because, "SHUCKS, we lost to a great SEC team". Texas A&M is a great example. They flew up the rankings by beating currently unranked South Carolina and then Lamar, Rice and SMU - IN CONSECUTIVE WEEKS!!! When they finally played an actual team in Miss State, they lost and dropped to 14. It took 3 straight losses to finally get them out of the rankings.

I don't see the SEC tearing up anyone from any other Power 5 conferences this season. They lost the few Power 5 matchups they played (Tennesse to Oklahoma, Missouri to Indiana). There is no way to say they are any better than any other conference in the NCAA. Do you want to claim past performance by the SEC in the BCS? Okay, how do you then account for upstarts Ole Miss and Miss State? If we want to use past performance, then these guys were #18 and unranked preseason, with long histories of futility. Suddenly, they are the darlings of the SEC, and we should just assume they are great? You can't have it both ways SEC fans! If you want past-performance to matter, than you have to discount schools that previously stunk.

Look, I'm not stupid. I realize the SEC has some good teams every year. However, most of them are extremely flawed. If you really look at it, the SEC is Alabama, an all-time great dynasty right now. Occasionally, an upstart Auburn or LSU sneaks through, but the conference as a whole is no better than any other.

What really gives it an edge though is money. The head coaches make more than anyone else (Saban earned $7M this year AND got a $3M house paid for by boosters). The assistants make more than most head coaches (why Biliema left Wisconsin). We also know the players get their share. Too many stories about Cam's dad and players flashing cash in selfies to ignore. Where there's smoke, there's fire. Finally, the Universities just THROW cash at the football programs. 

So we'll see what happens tonight. I predict Miss St, FSU, Alabama and Auburn are ranked at the top. ND will be in the pack of 1-loss teams that have to keep their fingers crossed. I think Oregon will edge us for #5, and we'll slide in at #6 ahead of Michigan State.

Well, F(S)Uck

That was about as bad as it gets. I think it literally is as bad as the 2005 USC (Bush Push) game. We had the victory, only to have it taken away from us by factors beyond our control - in this case the refs.

While this game convinced me that we could go toe-to-toe with any team in the country, I think the media and Playoff committee may see it differently. We dropped to #7 in the AP Poll and #8 in the Coaches Poll. I realize that these polls are now meaningless for determining a champion or playoff team, but they are a pretty good indicator of how the teams stack up.

The Playoff picture is coming into focus now. Barring more than a few miraculous upsets (which certainly could happen), the inaugural College Football Playoff looks like this:

1. SEC Champ
2. FSU
3. SEC West Runner-up
4. Wide Open

While the #1 seed could go back to FSU should the SEC champ incur a loss, those two will be #1 and #2. The runner-up in the SEC West will get the #3 seed. Likely it will be a 1-loss team, but a 2-loss runner-up likely gets the nod anyway, although they would get the #4 seed. The SEC East champ will be eliminated with the extra loss in the SEC Championship.

So that gets us to the interesting part. Right now, the teams in contention are Michigan State, Oregon and Notre Dame. The AP and Coaches polls have these teams completely flipped, so good luck trying to decide who gets in if each win out. I think a 1-loss conference champion from either the B1G or Pac-12 would get the nod over ND. Conference championships are a playoff criterion. (As an aside, the Big 12 is out. Horrible conference with no defense, and down in the rankings.)

So if ND wants to make the Playoff, we have to hope for 2 things: a loss by Michigan State and a loss by Oregon. Then, we take care of business and win out. There is no way we jump either with 1-loss no matter what our strength of schedule is. They won't easily leave 3 of 5 Power 5 conference champs out of a 4-team playoff.

There is one wrinkle left. I could see Ohio State leapfrogging us if they win out and win the B1G. Keep an eye on that.

ND v. FSU

Even after the pretty lackluster performance Saturday against North Carolina, I still feel like Notre Dame can pull off the upset in Tallahassee against Florida State. And as the days pass, I'm becoming more and more convinced that the best chance for that to happen is if Jameis Winston is their quarterback on Saturday. Here's my logic...

If Winston is suspended, the team starts to rally together and develop an us-against-the-world mentality. They have confidence in the backup after the Clemson game, so they know they can win without Winston and now they have a ton of motivation. They've also just been dropped from their perch at #1 down to #3 so they'll definitely have the whole, "No one gives us any respect" card to play as well. That can't carry you through a season, usually, but it can be enough to go crazy on emotion for one game and pull off the improbable.

If Winston plays, it's with the weight of his looming autograph scandal and his student code of ethics trial for his alleged sexual assault two years ago. I really believe Winston gives zero fucks about either of these issues, but they are a huge distraction to him and the team. The focus is completely on answering questions about these items and less about the game Saturday. He and the team will say all the right things about just being focused on Notre Dame, but you know it's a cloud and you know it will be an impact. And if he gets rattled early (which would be nice to have happen to an opposing quarterback, for a change) the wheels can really come off.

So I'm counterintuitively rooting for Winston to be available. Although, to reference my post from last week, should Notre Dame pull off the upset, the storyline quickly shifts to how Florida State was distracted by the events heading into the week and Notre Dame will get a big asterisk next to this victory and will still need to prove themselves against Arizona State, Louisville, and Southern Cal...

Outcomes Change the Narrative

Everett Golson and Ben Koyack saved my anniversary dinner. On our way to dinner we listened to Stanford's fourth quarter touchdown to take the lead then walked to a bar to watch Notre Dame's last ditch effort. The rest is history and I was able to enjoy my lobster pot and the wife her first crab cakes in 3 years, along with an exceptional butternut squash lobster bisque.

As we sat at home afterwards and watched the chaos of Saturday unfold (with an eye on the Nationals as they went into extra innings), Steph turned to me and said, "You're just staying up so you can watch the highlights and see what everyone says about the Notre Dame game." Of course I was! I couldn't wait to see everyone have to begrudgingly accept that maybe, just maybe, Notre Dame has a decent team this year.

Heading into the game all the talk was about Stanford's number one defense in multiple categories and Stanford's "hit-you-in-the-mouth" offense featuring the explosive Ty Montgomery. How could Notre Dame possibly deal with that? Most were picking Stanford.

Well, Notre Dame dealt with it. And could've made this a snorefest if a) Golson didn't gift Stanford a touchdown with a fumble on his on 10 yard line, b) Golson didn't give away potentially 7 points with an interception on Stanford's 2 yard line, and c) Notre Dame doesn't throw away 6 points on two bobbled field goal holds.

So I was eager to see Notre Dame's acceptance. But it never came.

Instead the story of the game became Stanford's inept offense. Every major college sportswriter not affiliated with Notre Dame took this angle or simply didn't mention the highly anticipated game between the 9th and 14th ranked teams in the country.

You know, you absolutely just know, that had Stanford held on to win this game gets a LOT more mention, even with all the craziness that occurred in the CFB world on Saturday. You know the talk turns to Notre Dame still not being tough enough. Of their early season success just being an aberration due to a weak schedule (one that, FWIW, many were calling the hardest in the country before the season started).

I don't know why I get worked up. This happens year after year after year. I should be used to it by now, but I always just expect things will change. Oh well, maybe if Notre Dame can pull the upset in Tallahassee they'll make some noise, but based on history the story will just change to how Florida State isn't the same team it was last year and was due for a loss.

ND Hodge Podge

We hit the real start of the football season this weekend as Stanford comes to town. I thought I'd take the opportunity to discuss a few ND topics of interest...

The Five
So the ND Honor Code finally held the hearings for the 5 ND football players this week. They should have their ruling within the next week, as early as today. Much mental anguish has been thrown around the interwebs with regards to ND admin's slow pace in resolving this situation. Here's what you need to know.

• ND does and always will place academics above everything else. Sports are a distant 2nd at best, and may be 3rd with the Catholic identity edging it out for 2nd.
• The pace of this investigation has been slow, but ND will NOT mess this up. 
• There has been no special treatment because these are football players.
• Clearly, these 5 players did something wrong. How bad their mistake was is the subject of the investigation and hearings. So if anyone (including them) wants to complain, they need to remember that it was the players who started this mess.

Much of the complaining has to do with the fact that they are being held out of football activities. Guilty until proven innocent. A typical complaint goes like this, "If they are exonerated, they were punished by missing over a quarter of the season for nothing!" While I agree that it doesn't make sense to take this extreme step (at least let them practice), you have to understand history. This situation involves a paid student employee of the athletic department. What her involvement is, we don't know. However, if you recall the one and only time ND received NCAA probation, it was because Kim Dunbar gave gifts to a player she was dating. The NCAA determined she was a booster because she paid $25 to go to a QB club luncheon. So that is why ND self-reported the current situation to the NCAA. I doubt this will have any NCAA implications, but ND will take no chances on getting a penalty. I think their deliberate approach to this situation will make that very unlikely.

ACC and Scheduling
I am loving our association with the ACC. We have 5 power conference games locked in. They rotate to new ACC sites every year. Lots of new opponents and stadiums to check out. It covers HOT spots we need for recruiting. Our Bowl opportunities are better than ever. Looking ahead, it look like Swarbrick is looking to diversify the schedule. We have series scheduled against Georgia, Texas, A&M and OSU. I envision a future in which we hopefully play one team from each power conference every year. Without a conference championship, we need to be able to compare ourselves to other conferences for playoff selection. An ideal future schedule format:

• 5 ACC teams
• 2 Pac 12 (USC, Stanford)
• 2 B1G (rotate Purdue/MSU and occasional OSU or Michigan)
• 1 SEC (Georgia and A&M currently)
• 1 Big 12 (Texas coming up)
• 1 Navy

Stanford
I see almost everyone seems to be picking Stanford to pop ND's bubble. I can't even believe it. The pure ignorance is mind-numbing. Go back to 2012 and read my preview of the ND Oklahoma game. I hit it dead on. I don't often make predictions, but this one seems too easy.

• ND is better than 2013.
• Stanford is worse than 2013.
• ND lost 27-20 at Stanford in 2013.
• That loss was aided by 2 4th Q picks by Tommy Rees.
• Our QB is now Golson who can make plays.
• The game is at Notre Dame.

It seems pretty obvious we should at least be favored in this game. Stanford isn't the bruising juggernaut of the past 5 years. They are in transition. I think our O is good for a few scores, and I don't see them taking advantage of our solid D. I call ND victory 24-13.

Season Prospects
So the inevitable question. Do we make the Playoff? Clearly it is too early to make that call. A big win this week helps a LOT. FSU may be the season. We also cannot slip up against AZST and USC. I'll be all-in if we beat FSU, and we will be in prime position if that happens. A close loss to FSU keeps us alive, but the only way we get in with 1 loss is if we look better than the Big 12 and B1G champions. I don't see that happening. Assuming we are 11-1 with a loss to FSU, FSU is in. Whomever wins the SEC is in. Whomever wins the Pac 12 is in. The B1G is down, and could lose out. A 1 loss MSU will be difficult to skip in favor of ND. Conference Championships are a big criteria. Even tougher is Oklahoma should they win out or have 1 loss. If we beat FSU and them stumble late, we could edge out FSU with 1 loss. That may be our best shot, but it has always been tough to overcome a late season loss. I think the only way we get in as an independent is undefeated. Some hard years ahead until the Playoff expands to 8.