The recent expansion of the B1G to 14 by poaching Rutgers and Maryland, as well as the quick ACC response to poach Louisville has cemented it:
The future of college football is four 16-team super-conferences.
If anyone denies this at this point, they are delusional. Academics are an afterthought now that the B1G has thrown away it's academic standards for a geographic footprint. Reality check, the Big East is already dead. Moving on, right now the
SEC, B1G and ACC have 14. The Pac-12 has 12, and the Big-12 has 10. What
do you think is going to happen? I also wonder
if they split from the NCAA and set up their own rules, as they do with the BCS and upcoming playoff.
This is going to happen. The big question I have:
Can Notre Dame exist alone with 64 super-conference teams?
My
gut, my heart and my brain all tell me
NO. These conferences would
likely break into 2 8-team divisions, playing 7 division games. You would have to play a few teams in the other division, otherwise you may never face them in the regular season. I think 3 would be the minimum. That would include 1 annual rivalry and 2 games that rotate. That leavs only a couple games that would
probably be inter-conference tie-ins. Even if ND could schedule a couple
of these, how would they get a game every week? Also, why would a 16-team conference
take a 17th member in all sports except football. It's getting cutthroat
out there, and I think the conferences will force ND to join or
cut-bait.
I am 1 million percent certain that the end game in
conference realignment is Notre Dame. The B1G and ACC are reluctant to
go to 16 now, hoping ND will pick them. So I see the future playing out in 1 of 2 ways.
1) ND commits to fully join the ACC
If we committed to the ACC, the
conference is secure, and a 16th member would quickly be added. This would start a chaotic cascade of events. The
Pac-12, B1G and SEC would scramble to get to 16. The only way for the Pac-12 to get to
16 is to rob the Big-12. The Big-12 is then toast. It almost happened a year
ago, so you can bet it's on the table in Pac-12 meetings as the other
guys have been aggressively expanding. There just aren't enough major
football programs to support a 5th super-conference.
2) ND sticks on it's own, and is forced to join a conference
This would be a slower, more painful process for us. This is already happening. I think the next domino to fall would be either the Pac-12 or SEC going to 16. Like I said, the Pac-12 has already tried to do this, so the plan is there. There would then be a mad dash to grab the best of the ACC and Big-12, and one of those conferences would be mortally wounded. This could very well be the ACC, which could lose it's football powers to the B1G, SEC or Big-12. That could leave our olympic sports homeless. On the other hand, the Big-12 could crumble, which I think is more likely. Either way, ND will be forced to pick between the B1G and the ACC for all sports.
Here's how I see the super-conferences filling out:
Pac-12: adds Texas, Oklahoma, BYU and either Baylor/Texas Tech
B1G: adds Kansas and Oklahoma State
ACC: adds Notre Dame and UConn
SEC: adds Kansas State State and West Virginia
That's it. Everyone else is left out in the cold. If ND were to hold out, I think the ACC would be in trouble. However, while a lot of Big-12 schools are pretty undesirable, all the ACC schools would be desirable additions to other conferences. I just can't see EVERY ACC school finding a place in the other 4 super-conferences. Why would BC want to join a Big-12 devoid of Texas and Oklahoma?
One way or another, I think the day is soon
approaching when we will have to decide to go all-in with the ACC or run
to the B1G with our tail between our legs.