Yeeeaaaaaahhhhhhhh!!!!!

Ticket Purchase Confirmed...

3D is cool, but not essential. However, any chance to see a movie in actual IMAX, is totally worth it.

Do Umpires Hate Jay Bruce?

Last night the Reds played the Braves in a nationally televised game on ESPN. They won, woo-hoo. However, I noticed something that has been bothering me for quite some time; the number of questionable called strikes against Jay Bruce. Jay Bruce has always been a very streaky hitter. When he is in the zone he can hit like no other player in the game. However, when he is in a slump he becomes very ineffective and his at-bats are difficult to watch. Yet no matter how Bruce is playing I always noticed that the umpires give him very little respect in terms of called strikes against him. For some reason Jay Bruce seemingly has the largest strike zone of any player in baseball. If some of the questionable called strikes against Jay Bruce were called balls, as they should have been, he would find himself in many more favorable hitting situations. This is obvious when you think about whether a MLB hitter would rather be in the batter’s box with 2 balls and 0 strikes versus 0 balls and 2 strikes. It seems more often than not, Jay Bruce falls behind in the count due to a questionable called strike and is forced to protect the plate as opposed to attacking the pitcher. More often than not this leads to Bruce swinging and missing at a breaking ball low and away. After thinking about this, I wondered if there was a way to actually prove it. After a 4-second google search I hit a home-run. I found a website (http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/) that provides sortable, historical pitch/FX data for hitters and pitchers. Using this tool you can see in chart form the called strikes for any MLB hitter. So let’s go to the charts:

The chart above shows pitches taken by Jay Bruce for the year. Just look at how many obvious balls were actually called strikes (by my count I see approximately 25 balls that were called strikes). It becomes clear after looking at this chart that the book on Jay Bruce is to throw low and away and hope he swings at it, and if he doesn’t swing hope the umpire calls the pitch a strike anyway, which he usually does. The problem for Jay Bruce, as well as Reds fans, is that umpires are consistently calling obvious balls thrown low and away to Bruce as strikes. Thus, Jay Bruce has no choice but to swing at those pitches because he knows that MLB umpires are probably going to call those balls as strikes. If he doesn’t swing, then he will find himself hearing the umpire yell strike. If these pitches were appropriately called as balls just think how many hitter’s counts (more balls than strikes) Jay Bruce would face, and how much better of a hitter he could be. Maybe this could even help make him a more consistent player.

For the sake of comparison let’s look at an MLB player who has more of a track record in the league who many would suspect gets more respect from umpires. The chart above shows pitches taken by Derek Jeter for the year. Jeter does have some low balls called as strikes, but he doesn’t have nearly the number of called strikes that were actually balls as Jay Bruce did (by my count I see 15 balls that were called strikes).

There are obvious limitations to this comparison: Jeter is right handed, he plays in the AL, and he bats at a different spot in the order. However, the results are still obvious, Jay Bruce finds himself in more pitcher’s counts (more strikes than balls) because umpires call obvious pitches that are low and away balls as strikes against him. Just look at that ridiculous called strike against Bruce that looks to be about 12 inches below the strike zone!

If Jay Bruce was given a fair shake when he steps in the batter’s box by umpires not calling strikes on obvious balls thrown low and out of the strike zone there is no telling how great of a hitter he could be!

Musical Chairs

It is now inevitable. The big conferences in college football have started the final assault, and college athletics will be changed forever - very soon. I knew this was coming, but I didn't realize how fast things were moving. Last week, I would have thought things were just about settled for a while, pending the new BCS structure. Today, I realize that the lull was an illusion.

The SEC and Big 12 recently announced  a new Bowl partnership to create a matchup of the respective conference champions, similar to what the Big Ten and Pac 12 have with the Rose Bowl.  This has several immediate, far reaching implications.

• The BCS will soon become a 4 team playoff.
• The conferences are now bypassing even the Bowls, and forming their OWN Bowl games.
• We are quickly moving to the model of 4 "super-conferences" of 16 teams.
• Clearly, the Big East, ACC and all other non-BCS conferences are on the outside looking in.
• Notre Dame will have to decide what they want to do with our football program - soon.
• The NCAA is irrelevant as an organization.

I liken this to a gigantic game of musical chairs, and that the music is only speeding up. All the D1 football schools are dancing around the chairs. When the music stops, there will be 4 major conferences, and everyone else will be totally out of luck. I also think that will likely be the endgame, at least in our lifetimes. 64 teams will hold all the cards. If ND is not in a conference at this point, there will be no room left for us, and we will have no mojo to maintain a competitive football team. We become Navy.


Look, since the BCS began in 1998, ND has been in 3 games. That's 3 out of 14 years. In a 4 team playoff format, we would have qualified ZERO times in those previous years. No matter what the new BCS format is, ND will be assuredly LESS LIKELY to get a spot, given the fewer teams involved. What options does that leave us? All the Bowls are likely scrambling AT THIS VERY MOMENT to secure conference affiliations. The dominoes are falling. I hate it, but I think it is truly, finally, for real, the moment that we need to make a choice. If we don't act now, the choice will be made for us.

ESPN Being Sued

If you rely solely on ESPN for your news, you won't see this story. Laurie Fine, the wife of Syracuse ex-assistant coach Bernie Fine, is suing ESPN for libel. She specifically names Mark Schwartz and a producer at ESPN for destroying her reputation "in an attempt to capitalize financially in the tragic wake of the Penn State Abuse Scandal." Here's the link to the story and some of the reasons named in the suit. I wonder if ESPN will cover any of this or just hope to sweep it under the rug. Personally, I hope she wins, just to settle down ESPNs paparazzi-like attitude towards anything sports. Don't get me wrong, I'm not convinced that Laurie Fine wasn't involved - but I don't like ESPN, so anything that can be done to limit their piranha-like attitude towards bad sports stories is a plus in my book.

Walt Jocketty is either a genius or an idiot. Or how to properly use Aroldis Chapman.

So many people have realized or stated publicly that Aroldis Chapman may likely be the best pitcher in baseball at the moment. However, as he has the previous two years, he is not pitching in the starting rotation but is pitching out of the bullpen. At first I was livid that the Reds would continue to waste his talents in the bullpen as opposed to using him as a starter. However, Reds TV guy Chris Welsh had a really interesting point the other day. He stated that the Reds are aware that Chapman can only pitch a limited number of innings in 2012 above what he pitched in 2011. Because of this, instead of "wasting" innings pitched in triple-A, the Reds have decided to limit his innings by having him pitch out of the bullpen. In 2012 Chapman has pitched only 17.2 innings to date. In all of 2011 he pitched 50 innings. Typically a pitcher should only pitch approximately 30 more innings from one year to the next. Thus, Chapman's pitch limit in 2012 will be about 80 innings. If he continues to pitch out of the bullpen for the next few months of the season he should probably have around 50-60 innings. Then at that point we could turn him into a starter and should be able to get an additional 4 or 5 quality starts out of him. Those 4 or 5 starts will hopefully be exactly what the Reds need to propel them into the playoffs. Actually, I hope they don't need his starts to get into the playoffs, and can slowly stretch him out so he makes his starts late into the year and really hits his stride in the playoffs! Or, the Reds may keep him in the bullpen all year. If that is the case I am not going to be happy.

So Much for the QB Race

Rees arrested on felony charges of battery to law enforcement.

My money's still on Golson.

Whoa! How Did This Slip By?

I think the entire country agrees that the BCS in college football sucks. I also think most of sports fans know the BCS is currently conducting a series of meetings to discuss the future of the BCS. Everyone who reads this blog knows my feelings about the BCS and its implications on Notre Dame football independence.

Does ANYONE know that the BCS recently decided to eliminate automatic qualifiers for conference champions???

This is a HUGE change, and one that will create 2 immediate effects:

1) Schools from traditional non-BCS conferences (and independents like ND) will have a much harder time getting a BCS game.
You think the TCU's and Boise State's had something to complain about? The only reason those teams got in in the past was because the BCS bowls were not allowed to take a 3rd BCS conference team. Money drives all, and this reverts the system to the more traditional bowl approach - schedule the best matchup to make the most cash. Having a 4-team playoff (which sounds inevitable in 2014) only makes this more likely. Those 4 teams "earn" a spot, while the other BCS bowls scramble to make big games.

2) The Big East is done.
The Big East is being assaulted on all sides by conferences poaching their best schools. Without an automatic qualifier, I doubt a Big East team will be in a BCS bowl often (if at all) as the Big East is currently formulated. The Big East has scrambled to avoid this, adding a bunch of crappy schools that are nowhere near their geographic base - watering down the league. When it's time to renegotiate TV rights, the Big East is in big trouble, and I bet it collapses.

So how does this affect Notre Dame? I think it clearly forces out hand to change conferences for non-football sports. Notre Dame didn't sign up for an all-sports league that included Central Florida, Houston and SMU. As a result, we have to have a willing conference to allow us to maintain football independence. I wonder if that is possible. There are rumblings that the Big 12 would consider that, but why would they? If we stay in the Big East, our non-football sports will suffer a slow death at the expense of maintaining football independence. Ultimately, we may be forced to give up independence and join a conference to maintain ALL sports.

Potpourri Post

It's an off day for the Reds, so I thought I'd steal an idea from a blog I love (Redleg Nation) and do a mixed-bag blog post. There are a number of topics that I had been thinking about posting recently, so I'll knock them out in one post!

Isle of Palms
So we successfully navigated the dreaded vacation house hunt! It's a damn thing there isn't a family version of The Amazing Race. Our family would be THE WORST EVER!!! I guess that's good and bad. We all have an equal voice, and decisions are pretty democratic. Dad tipped me to another website for the house that has a floor plan and a lot more pics. Please leave room decisions until closer to the trip!!!
Mansion on the Beach

Reds
Back to .500 on the season. Bruce and Votto seem to be waking up, and our bullpen has been outstanding. Now if we could just get Chapman into the rotation and say adios to Bailey or Leake (awful start), we'd be making progress! The guy has an ERA of 0.00.

ND
So we lost Lynch, but gained a couple of nice commitments. The Blue Gold games didn't tell us anything, excpet that we will have another 4-way QB competition this fall. I am starting to think all these 4-way competitions are really hurting the team. Our eventual #1 and #2 don't get enough reps, and that hurts when you have inexperienced QBs. I wish Kelly would just pick 2 and say they are competing for the spot. Let the rest transfer.

US Men's National Team
Is Klinsmann starting to bring the team around? We have 1-0 wins in each of our three matches this year, including AT Italy! Big match coming up against Brazil in DC, you guys going? You'll get to see the  new National Team kits. I can't say they are my favorite ever, but I do love that Nike is trying to give the USA a national identity with the kits. The women have a similar pattern. I actually just bought the Nike Prematch USA shirt, which is AWESOME! Check this bad boy out...

P90X
Soooo... Some of you have probably tried it. All of you have probably realized that you won't get a 6-pack and lose all those extra pounds like on TV or online ads. I have actually done it (for varying amounts of time) intermittently over the last 2 years. I love the workouts, and I feel very fit when I do it, but never got those results. I finally figured it out though. Just like the old adage: Weight loss requires diet AND exercise. It's simple math, calories in and calories out. So I just completed my most recent P90X cycle, and I did it religiously. Every workout, every day - including 2 vacations out of town. I also did a diet shake thing (Body By Vi) that I actually really like. The results are actually pretty amazing. I'm not going to post before and after pics here because I think that's gay and I didn't take them. I will show you my Weight Track graph that I kept track of on my iPhone (Weight, BMI, Body Fat and Waist).

These graphs track the 4 stats I kept. The image actually just puts them all on the graph using the weight as the y-axis just to see the trend. I have now officially gotten back to high school shape. Seriously. The old 33 pants (we all still have that old pair of pants that we dream about wearing one day) are actually baggy enough that I had to punch new holes in my belt to make it tighter. Will it all come back, I don't know. Probably some, but at least I got back into game shape before Piper comes along!

Fire Dusty Baker!

I know, it's April 18. As the Reds spot St. Louis 5 tonight, I have only this to consider - at least we won't lose in extra innings again! The Reds are at 4-7, and they look WAAAAAAAAAY worse than that record suggests - even if we are only 2 weeks into the season.

29 / 28 / 28 /29

That's the Reds rankings for runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. That is atrocious. Our pitching is just middle of the pack, but our future ace (for whom we emptied our farm system) is about to be 0-2 in 3 starts with an ERA over 7. Cueto is money, and Arroyo is Arroyo. Bailey is still the best AA pitcher in a major league rotation.

This season, which started with so much hope and so many expectations could not have started worse. But when you really look at it, we shouldn't be surprised. We tried to upgrade our rotation by dumping Volquez and plugging in Latos. We attempted to upgrade our bullpen, but really ended up just exchanging Cordero for Marshall. Pretty much a wash. We completely failed to address our 2 hitting needs - a leadoff man and a cleanup hitter. So why would we expect different results from last season? Are Votto and Phillips going to get better because they signed extensions?

Unless we make some changes, the season will surely slip away by June. Here's what I think needs to happen:

1) Fire Dusty Baker
I have grown tired of Dusty Baker's idiotic decisions, and his nonsensical justifications after he is lambasted for them. Dusty is an old-school manager. He refuses to change his style, and that is hurting this club. Some suggest a good MLB manager is only worth 5 wins or so in a year. I'll take that!!! That doesn't take into account the effect a new sheriff can have when a manager takes over and shakes things up. I often wonder if Jocketty and Dusty are in the same book, let alone on the same page! Dusty was gone at the end of the season, but I think a change now would be a very positive spark.

2) Aroldis Chapman is our 5th Starter
He is our top pitching prospect, signed to a huge deal. He has started ALL HIS LIFE. He was the best starter in spring training, and he is the best pitcher currently on our team. Chapman needs to be starting. IMMEDIATELY!

3) Our Best Players Need to be With the Team
Willie Harris (LF), Wilson Valdez (SS), Alfredo Simon (RP)? Really? I know you need depth, but these guys are worthless. They cannot be counted on to pick up the team when they play. We need younger guys who are hungry and can contribute. Didi Gregarious (SS), Denis Phips (CF) or Andrew Brackman (RP) would be worthy replacements.

4) Jay Bruce in Cleanup
Our batting order is just awful. One reason - no leadoff man. The main reason? We have no cleanup hitter. Rolen is just miserable at 4, and this is killing Votto without protection. Dusty has refused to bat Bruce at cleanup because he doesn't want two lefties batting in a row. WHAT? I know Bruce hasn't been knocking the cover off the ball, but he is our biggest hitter not named Joey.

5) Go Get a Bat
The Reds signed Ryan Ludwick hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. They didn't. If you recall, my #1 choice in the offseason was Josh Willingham. He is now TEARING IT UP in Minnesota under a 3 year $21 million deal. I am STILL pissed we didn't get this guy. He would have been PERFECT! Jocketty needs to start kicking the tires on some possible mid-season acquisitions. There are always plenty of bats available from teams out of contention. David Murphy, Adam Jones or Nolan Reimold may all be quality guys that become available.

Okay, now it's 8-1 St. Louis. It's clear that our team has issues. We can ignore them, and suffer through another 70 win season, or we can fix them. I wonder if the commitment shown by ownership this offseason will continue.

It's Over

My eternal optimism regarding ND football has been stretched to its limits in the last 10 years. I think today, it has finally been broken. Aaron Lynch is transferring.

24 years since a National Title
0 BCS wins - EVER
18 years since a meaningful Bowl win
19 years since we were ranked #1
10 years since we were ranked in the Top 10

We are a private school that relies on national recruiting. The current college landscape has created more high quality teams in different parts of the country (increased parity), and it is getting harder to win those recruiting battles. Even the ones we do win often are for nothing. How many ND commitments have flipped RIGHT BEFORE signing day in the last 10 years? Too many to count. How many people have committed and then changed their mind, willing to sit out a year? Well, in the past 2 months, we have lost 2 elite players - Tee Shepherd and now Lynch. We are not exactly stockpiling talent.

Our schedule is BRUTAL, and is getting tougher to keep reasonable. We have to front load a lot of big games to avoid the conference scheduling that has become more substantial. This year, we are looking at one of the toughest schedules in history. We will be lucky to get 8 wins.

Coaching has taken a huge hit since Holtz. Brian Kelly seems like a great coach, but there are some HUGE deficiencies in this team that he has been unable to address in over two years. Do we have a starting QB yet? I am starting to question his leadership as well. Why are all these young players transferring?

I think we are in big trouble. I don't think joining a conference is the answer, but our poor play may force that upon us in the very near future. I don't see some savior coach bailing us out. Really, I think the only chance we have to get things back on track is for some unexpected player to EXPLODE, single-handedly carrying us to another level. Typically, that has to be a QB or maybe a RB. When I look at our roster, I don't see that player right now.

Realistically, I see us as at best an 8-9 win team in the foreseeable future. With no conference or bowl alliance, our post-season options will dwindle. I don't think we will be a BCS caliber team again. I'll still cheer, but I think the days of Notre Dame competing for a National Title are over. A very, very sad day of realization for me.